Blackfriars' Marketing

Thursday, December 15, 2005

The great XBox 360 restock begins Sunday

Gizmodo has a lead on how many Xbox 360s are being resupplied to Best Buy this weekend. Overall opinion is that they will go on sale Sunday morning. My opinion is that Best Buy will probably advertise "Xbox 360 in stock!" in its Sunday circulars as a way to drive traffic to stores on this next-to-last holiday shopping weekend, even though by the time consumers read the pitch, it probably won't be true any more.

That said, here is the following shipping scorecard for XBox 360s so far:

US Launch: 300,000
Europe launch: 300,000
Japan launch: 159,000

Total: 759,000

That's very much in line with our projections from this fall. This resupply shipment is supposed to add another 300,000, bringing the total to 1,059,000. Blackfriars doesn't expect any further supply this year, so while Microsoft will have overdelivered on our estimates (less than 1,000,000 by Christmas), it will fall far short of the 1.6 to 1.8 million units originally estimated by analysts and implied by Microsoft. The interesting part will be to see what Microsoft will do to drive demand in January and February, when sales will undoubtedly be slower.

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