Christmas console deja vu: PlayStation 3 shortages guaranteed

Tuesday was the first official day when retailers were allowed to take Playstation 3 pre-orders, and as Ars Technica notes, most locations sold out their allocations in minutes. With planned production of 2 million by the end of the year (constrained we're told by the blue laser shortages), we can expect to see similar shortages to that experienced with XBox 360 consoles last year.

The only good news: Despite the many complaints about Sony's high prices of $499 and $599, the higher prices Sony is demanding for the PS3 should tamp down demand a bit and reap a bit more revenue for Sony during this high-cost launch phase. But even so, with more than 100 million Playstation 2s in the market today, there's an installed base of Sony consumers -- 8.7 million according to market research firm Interpret -- who will be interested in buying next generation console, regardless of price. That's about 10 times the 800,000 willing to pay full price for the XBox 360, according to the study. The only question is whether the higher console price will mean that those consoles that will inevitably be scalped on eBay will be sold for $1,500 instead of just a measly $1,000.

One other interesting detail from some of the marketing documents being circulated about the PS3: Sony is forbidding requiring bundling of games to purchase a PS3. I personally think that's a good move. Nothing puts a worse taste in a consumer's mouth than having to buy bundles just to get access to a hard-to-get product. By forbidding retailers to use this sleazy marketing tactic, Sony should garner at least a bit more good will than they would otherwise.

And by the way, Nintendo Wii's are also being made available for pre-order this week as well. I think these $250 consoles will do a bit better than many believe, simply because of their ability to run all Nintendo games since the beginning of time (practically) and their innovative game controller. And with the lowest cost third generation console and Nintendo reaping profits from its hand-held gaming franchise as well as its consoles, it stands to do particularly well in the shoot out this Christmas.

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