Black Friday circular ads jump 50% over last year

I just finished my annual count of the advertising circulars in today's West edition of the Boston Globe newspaper. The tally this year: 636 pages. That's about 50% more than last year's 412 pages.

Just for clarity, my count is of one-sided pages of approximately 8.5 x 11 size. So if someone prints a double-sided portrait layout that's 17 inches tall by 11 inches wide, that counts as four pages -- that is, two 8.5 x 11 pages on each side times two sides.

As is typical in these counts, the department stores make up the majority of the count, with 322 pages. Electronics comes in second with 116 pages (and would be more if we included office supply stores like Staples and OfficeMax, since much of what they sell on Black Friday is electronics). Hardware stores like Home Depot were a surprising third.

And unlike last year, $999 and less flat screen TVs are being offered by many stores, from Best Buy to Wal-Mart. As we've noted in other postings, that magic price point will make flat panels hot commodities for holiday cocooning.

Conclusions? Our data shows that marketing spending has been declining this year in pretty much all categories with the exception of offline advertising. What this jump in ad circular spending says to me is that retailers have seen the early push for holiday shopping by Wal-Mart, and want to make sure they get their share of traffic. As we noted in that prior article, this increased competition for shoppers tends to more price-cutting, driving down profits. In other words, this boost in ad spending probably indicates a tough Christmas selling season, with sales up 3% of less over last year (which itself was somewhat weak).

Of course, this is just one measurement in one locale. But while you're waiting for your turkey to get done and the football games to start, why don't you take a few minutes and count the number of advertising pages in your local newspaper? Post the results in the comments and we'll see if we can get some consensus about how Black Friday is shaping up this year.

Technorati Tags: Advertising, Advertising spending, Best Buy, Black Friday, Circulars, Flat Panels, Marketing, Newspapers, Plasma, Retail, Wal-Mart