Apple blows out estimates again

UPDATE: Well, for once I overestimated iPod sales, but only as the result of the NPD market share update on January 4. Apple, Inc. reported earnings after the stock market close, and they actually only sold a few more than 21 million iPods (for very large values of only). That's up 50% year over year in units and a 24% increase in revenue. I also missed on computer units, overestimating notebook sales by 300,000 or so. But my biggest surprise was the increase in net margin to over a billion dollars, which rose from 9% of revenues to 14%, causing my estimate of $796 million to look positively gutless.

So what does it all mean? Well, here's a fairly mind-blowing thought: Apple sold nearly one-quarter of the 86 million iPods in the world today just in the fourth quarter. No matter what Business 2.0 asserts, that's not slowing growth. And while we'll undoubtedly see some change in mix with the introduction of the iPhone in very late Q2 (more likely Q3), I wouldn't bet on growth slowing soon. After all, while the iPhone may need a lot of refining to meet FCC and Cingular requirements, Apple has no such restrictions on marketing a WiFi-enabled touch-screen iPod without cell phone capabilities. And the year has just gotten started.

Full disclosure: I own some Apple stock.

Technorati Tags: Apple, Financial analysis, iPhone, iPod, iTunes, MacBook, Macintosh