A not so merry Christmas for Madison Avenue

All year, we here at Blackfriars have been bemoaning deep cuts in marketing spending. But advertising, the most conservative and cut-resistant type of marketing spending, has been pretty resilient. But now, bellweather advertising sizer Robert J Cohen has cut his growth forecast for ad spending for 2007 to an anemic 0.7%, according to the New York Times. That's down significantly from his forecast last December of 4.8% growth, and his June forecast for 3.1% growth. And these numbers include one category that's been growing dramatically: Internet advertising. The result: spending on all other types of advertising and marketing is suffering, particularly since our survey of senior executives says that marketing budgets are down sharply this year.

And 2008? Don't even ask.

He [Coen] is also crunching his forecast for next year. Last June, Mr. Coen predicted American ad spending in 2008 would be 5 percent higher than in 2007. Yesterday, he revised his estimate downward to an increase of 3.7 percent, to $294.4 billion, which would represent an anemic 2.04 percent of the gross domestic product expected for next year.

Again, the standout medium for ad growth will be the Internet, Mr. Coen predicted, up 16.5 percent from 2007. In contrast, national newspapers will fall 1 percent, he estimated, and local radio will be flat with this year.

“We don’t see a great deal of improvement immediately ahead,” Mr. Coen said, which “doesn’t make me very optimistic about 2008.”

Technorati Tags: Advertising, Marketing, Marketing 2007, Marketing spending