Blackfriars' Marketing

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Microsoft expects to launch XBox 360 on Nov. 22 in the US

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At the Tokyo gaming conference, Microsoft finally announced its target release dates for XBox 360, namely Nov 22 in the US, Dec 2 in Europe, and Dec 10 in Japan. The company also noted that it is producing 'millions of units" at three facilities in China. As Blackfriars has noted before, we expect those millions of units to be severely supply constrained. Financial analysts have estimated that Microsoft will ship something like 1.6 million at Christmas. I will be surprised if they break a million. Remember, as recently as a month ago, a demo unit at IDF wasn't yet working up to spec nor was the unit considered ready for production yet..

One other note in the interview: Microsoft admitted that they will be losing money on each and every console for a while. No surprises there, but it clearly puts out in public the equation that XBox sales will also be tempered by how much money Microsoft is willing to lose to gain market share in the gaming business. Admittedly, if current numbers are correct, it's pocket change for the software giant (only about $75 million for 1 million units), but that's before we know what Sony's counter-promotions will be like too. With the economic effects of hurricane Katrina hitting consumers hard this fall and winter (check back for a long blog post on that in the near future), the rumored Sony promotion of a $100 Playstation 2 for Christmas could hurt XBox 360 sales at 3x and 4x that price, particularly with game availability being limited on the XBox 360.