SED flat-panel technology won't sell consumers this year
We wrote back in the December that many analysts expect that we'll see surface-conduction electron-emitter (SED) flat-panel TVs in spring 2006. You can think of these as flat-panel displays with a tiny little cathode-ray tube for every pixel (Anandtech has a nice writeup and diagram of how they work). I also said we'd see more about them at the Consumer Electronics Show in January.
In fact, there were a couple SED displays at CES (as noted by Engadget), but there were also a lot of "no pictures allowed" rules and no information on pricing. But while I was listening outside the Toshiba booth, I did hear a bit of mumblilng of some of the panels being anywhere from $10K to $50K this year depending on size.
Now before anyone cries out in outrage that SED was supposed to bring lower prices, remember that this is a brand new technology requiring about $1.7 billion in investment to get going. Further, it doesn't really have the same clear return-on-investment as more well-understood and proven technologies as plasma and LCD, so making the case for investment to everyone from the board of directors to bankers is also harder. SED is just harder to market to the average person than something they already know.
The bottom line: if you're looking for the introduction of SED technology to drive down prices, you've got a long wait ahead. What you're going to see instead is SED raising the bar on picture quality, and some testing of whether the market wants to pay a premium for that picture quality. My bet: Plasma and LCD technologies from Panasonic, LG, and Sharp will get better faster than SED can get its prices down. At the end of the day, the consumer doesn't want to buy technology; they just wants a great flat-panel picture at an affordable price. The initials SED are just a detail, not a consumer benefit.
In fact, there were a couple SED displays at CES (as noted by Engadget), but there were also a lot of "no pictures allowed" rules and no information on pricing. But while I was listening outside the Toshiba booth, I did hear a bit of mumblilng of some of the panels being anywhere from $10K to $50K this year depending on size.
Now before anyone cries out in outrage that SED was supposed to bring lower prices, remember that this is a brand new technology requiring about $1.7 billion in investment to get going. Further, it doesn't really have the same clear return-on-investment as more well-understood and proven technologies as plasma and LCD, so making the case for investment to everyone from the board of directors to bankers is also harder. SED is just harder to market to the average person than something they already know.
The bottom line: if you're looking for the introduction of SED technology to drive down prices, you've got a long wait ahead. What you're going to see instead is SED raising the bar on picture quality, and some testing of whether the market wants to pay a premium for that picture quality. My bet: Plasma and LCD technologies from Panasonic, LG, and Sharp will get better faster than SED can get its prices down. At the end of the day, the consumer doesn't want to buy technology; they just wants a great flat-panel picture at an affordable price. The initials SED are just a detail, not a consumer benefit.
Technorati Tags: 1080p, 720p, Canon, Canon, Flat Panels, HDTV, LCD, LG, Manufacturing, Marketing, Panasonic, Plasma, Sharp, SED, Toshiba
posted by Carl Howe at
1:18 PM
| View blog reactions
| 
