New free Analyzing Apple report and Blackfriars' projections for today's Apple earnings call

Apple Inc. reports earnings at the close of business today. You can read our projection of what we expect Apple to earn in the ad-supported version of our June Analyzing Apple: Waiting For The iPhone" report that we just posted yesterday. But the short version is that we expect Apple to report that it earned $0.82 per share (basic) for its fiscal Q3 ending June 30. That includes our estimate of 500,000 iPhones sold during the first 30 hours of sale, which may turn out to be high. But since iPhone sales will have no material impact on Apple earnings for several quarters to come because of its decision to distribute the revenue over 24 months, we doubt a miss on the iPhone sales numbers will have any impact on the overall earnings. Instead, I expect sales of iPods, MacBooks, and MacBook Pro laptops to generate most of the earnings growth.

All that said, I'll just reiterate here what I said at the end of that report before the iPhone launch in June, since it appears to be particularly applicable now:

Unrealistic expectations for the iPhone may temporarily hurt Apple’s stock price. Based upon the thousands of iPhone stories being printed every day, many journalists seem to expect the iPhone to do their taxes, walk their dogs, and wash their cars. Some will expect to be able to buy one by just dropping by their local AT&T store a few days after launch. Many of those same journalists are going to write negative stories about how Apple didn’t live up to their expectations. Others will complain that their inability to get free iPhones to test is really a result of poor Apple planning.


While all this publicity will keep the iPhone in the news, investors should expect to see significant volatility in Apple stock for most of the summer. Short-term traders may find opportunities to move in and out of the stock; long-term investors should simply buy and hold the stock through the dips, relying on the market to eventually appreciate the earnings the iPhone will generate over the next several years.

For those who have not purchased one of our Analyzing Apple reports before, pre-orders of our next report, Analyzing Apple: iPhone Summer Heat are available off our Web site beginning today for $20 off our publication price of $95; that price will return to $95 when the report comes out July 31. For those Blackfriars' customers who have previously bought an Analyzing Apple report, look for an email from us in the next few days providing you with directions on how to get an even better discount offer as a thank you for your business.

Technorati Tags: Analyzing Apple, Apple, Blackfriars, Financial analysis, iPhone, Projections, Stocks, Volatility