XBox 360: an aggressive schedule at best
Tags: Microsoft, Sony, Games, Gaming, Marketing
I observed last week that both Microsoft and Sony must have flawless execution in the upcoming battle of the third generation gaming platforms. Well, according to GamesIndustry.biz, Microsoft has just shipped to developers ts first beta XBox 360 development kits, with final development kits to follow in a few months.
If I were an Xbox 360 developer, I'd have exactly one reaction to this: Yikes!
What's the problem? The calendar. XBox 360's big advantage is that it is expected to launch before Christmas. I'd interpret that to mean launch by "Black Friday", the Friday after Thanksgiving, when every store in the US will be competing for shoppers with huge promotions and high expectations. If I'm a developer, that means my title has to be ready to ship in about 16 weeks from now, assuming a month for printing and production and store distribution. But I only have beta hardware at this point. I won't be able to certify that my title actually works until I get real XBox 360 hardware "in a few months". That could be as late as a few weeks before I have to ship. And remember, this platform is completely different from the Xbox platform, so having a running game on the current Xbox provides no guarantee I have something that will work on XBox 360. In short, my whole 2005 business plan and multi-million-dollar investment required to bring a new game to market for XBox is depending entirely on being able to find most of the bugs on a beta platform and then quickly port to the final hardware in the last four weeks before shipment.
Further, Xbox 360 relies on some 3 GHz processors from IBM. Apple just abandoned IBM's chips because of its inability to hit delivery, speed, and power milestones after working with them for years. So there's risk in the brand new chip supplies as well.
Compare this scenario with Sony's situation. They already have development systems in game developer's hands that are fairly close to final hardware (although they share similar risks on the PowerPC front), yet Sony's delivery timetable here in the US is about three months later. And at the end of the day, Sony's timetable has more contingency built-in. After all, if Sony runs into technical glitches and the PS3 comes out in July instead of April, developers will grumble, but that slip would still allow a successful 2006. On the other hand, if any technical problems crop up in XBox, developers counting on beating Sony to the punch in 2005 will just be out of luck; no one has yet succeeded in slipping Christmas.
Oh, one more thing. The above is just the technical schedule. Marketing these products well and compellingly requires a similar hard and fast schedule that will require a go/no-go decision well in advance of technical delivery to reserve venues, buy advertising space, and line up promotional events. The marketing cost of slipping Xbox 360 will be ten times more than the technical costs. So developers betting on XBox 360 are making a very high-stakes gamble -- and if Microsoft has problems, they'll be the ones who lose their shirts.
So at the end of the day, this battle of gaming platforms will come down to not who has the best platform, but who has the best project planners, logistics control, and risk management: Sony or Microsoft? On those criteria, Sony may already have won.
I observed last week that both Microsoft and Sony must have flawless execution in the upcoming battle of the third generation gaming platforms. Well, according to GamesIndustry.biz, Microsoft has just shipped to developers ts first beta XBox 360 development kits, with final development kits to follow in a few months.
If I were an Xbox 360 developer, I'd have exactly one reaction to this: Yikes!
What's the problem? The calendar. XBox 360's big advantage is that it is expected to launch before Christmas. I'd interpret that to mean launch by "Black Friday", the Friday after Thanksgiving, when every store in the US will be competing for shoppers with huge promotions and high expectations. If I'm a developer, that means my title has to be ready to ship in about 16 weeks from now, assuming a month for printing and production and store distribution. But I only have beta hardware at this point. I won't be able to certify that my title actually works until I get real XBox 360 hardware "in a few months". That could be as late as a few weeks before I have to ship. And remember, this platform is completely different from the Xbox platform, so having a running game on the current Xbox provides no guarantee I have something that will work on XBox 360. In short, my whole 2005 business plan and multi-million-dollar investment required to bring a new game to market for XBox is depending entirely on being able to find most of the bugs on a beta platform and then quickly port to the final hardware in the last four weeks before shipment.
Further, Xbox 360 relies on some 3 GHz processors from IBM. Apple just abandoned IBM's chips because of its inability to hit delivery, speed, and power milestones after working with them for years. So there's risk in the brand new chip supplies as well.
Compare this scenario with Sony's situation. They already have development systems in game developer's hands that are fairly close to final hardware (although they share similar risks on the PowerPC front), yet Sony's delivery timetable here in the US is about three months later. And at the end of the day, Sony's timetable has more contingency built-in. After all, if Sony runs into technical glitches and the PS3 comes out in July instead of April, developers will grumble, but that slip would still allow a successful 2006. On the other hand, if any technical problems crop up in XBox, developers counting on beating Sony to the punch in 2005 will just be out of luck; no one has yet succeeded in slipping Christmas.
Oh, one more thing. The above is just the technical schedule. Marketing these products well and compellingly requires a similar hard and fast schedule that will require a go/no-go decision well in advance of technical delivery to reserve venues, buy advertising space, and line up promotional events. The marketing cost of slipping Xbox 360 will be ten times more than the technical costs. So developers betting on XBox 360 are making a very high-stakes gamble -- and if Microsoft has problems, they'll be the ones who lose their shirts.
So at the end of the day, this battle of gaming platforms will come down to not who has the best platform, but who has the best project planners, logistics control, and risk management: Sony or Microsoft? On those criteria, Sony may already have won.
posted by Carl Howe at
10:37 AM
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