SED flat-panel TVs in spring 2006?

Reuters has a good end-of-year article on the promise of surface-conduction electron-emitter displays (SED) to shake up the flat panel market. The CEO of Canon is quoted as saying he would like to have his 55-inch SED flat-panel on the market by spring. But the article notes that the challenge is making money at the business, particularly against mature industries like plasma. One target was particularly notable:

Merrill Lynch analyst Ryohei Takahashi notes that South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) is aiming to get the price of a plasma set down to $20 per inch by 2008. That would mean $1,000 for a 50-inch TV, one-fourth current prices and a mighty hurdle for a relatively new product like SED.

Hmmmm. Given current prices for 50-inch plasmas, that's about a 35% price decline each year, assuming Samsung hits that target mid-2008. And we've already seen some claiming that some new technologies could cut the price of LCD panels by half in that same time frame. But the analyst's point is well-taken; once a technology is well-established in the market, a new technology needs huge price-performance advantages to displace the existing players. The open question is, can SED deliver those, or other marketing features that will allow it to not compete just on price?

We should find out more at CES in January. We will be attending the show and will keep our eyes peeled in case Canon and Toshiba show up with any working panels. Canon has shown a 36-inch panel to a variety of VIPs in the last year or so, but I don't think they've shown them publicly.

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