Skepticism versus analysis on Apple's future
I wrote an article on Friday noting Apple's positive prospects for 2007. Seeking Alpha reprinted the same article on Monday with a substantially more hypeful title, and that generated some very skeptical responses from the likes of Paul Thurrott and Digg members, claiming that they only believe Gartner and IDC market share numbers, not the ones I cited.
Having done similar sizings of markets when I was an analyst, I understand the skepticsm. Every sizing has some amount of bias and inaccuracy due to methodology and survey limitations (let me know if you want concrete examples; suffice it to say that no one has perfect data here. Want proof? Here's the first one: Gartner's and IDC's numbers never match). Further, both Gartner and IDC tend to revise their market share numbers a lot as new data comes in. Therefore, the real trick in getting a clear picture of where markets are going is in looking at lots of data from many sources and synthesizing them into a coherent whole, not focusing on a single source of data and claiming it is "the" number.
Along those lines this morning, I noticed that more data is supporting the pro-Apple view I noted in my article on Friday. One of the data sources is the US Department of Transportation, who has banned Windows Vista because of its incompatibilities with existing DOT applications. The article noted says they are considering both Apple Macs and Linux for new applications. Prudential Securities notes that it believes that the near-concurrent release of Apple's Leopard and Adobe's Creative Suite 3 will unleash a flood of pent up demand for Apple computers. Further, according to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Google and Apple have "are working on many more projects together." (side note: if Apple and Google are collaborating, they have a combined cash horde of $24 billion to influence the market. That's only half of Microsoft, but it's a force to think about). And finally, George Scriban, one of the Blackfriars blog readers notes that Apple will will likely exceed the 100 million iPod mark this month rather than next. That means that the iPod halo effect is a few million customers ahead of the schedule I cited in my article.
My overall point: the trick in being an analyst or a great marketer is seeing the obvious before anyone else does. That means sometimes taking chances on being later proven wrong. There's a ton of news saying that technology buying behaviors are changing, and many of those factors favor Apple. Those who see the change earlier than others have more opportunities to profit from the trend. Those that follow the herd will tend to get slaughtered. The big difference between the two strategies is whether people have the courage to believe their eyes.
UPDATE: Another data point this morning: Fortune Magazine just rated Apple the most innovative company, #2 in computers and #7 most admired company in the world.
UPDATE 2: Thank you to Paul Thurrott for his kind words today in response to this post, especially given our disagreements on what the data means. Gee, maybe this is the dawning of a new age.
Full disclosure: the author is long Apple shares at the time of writing.
Having done similar sizings of markets when I was an analyst, I understand the skepticsm. Every sizing has some amount of bias and inaccuracy due to methodology and survey limitations (let me know if you want concrete examples; suffice it to say that no one has perfect data here. Want proof? Here's the first one: Gartner's and IDC's numbers never match). Further, both Gartner and IDC tend to revise their market share numbers a lot as new data comes in. Therefore, the real trick in getting a clear picture of where markets are going is in looking at lots of data from many sources and synthesizing them into a coherent whole, not focusing on a single source of data and claiming it is "the" number.
Along those lines this morning, I noticed that more data is supporting the pro-Apple view I noted in my article on Friday. One of the data sources is the US Department of Transportation, who has banned Windows Vista because of its incompatibilities with existing DOT applications. The article noted says they are considering both Apple Macs and Linux for new applications. Prudential Securities notes that it believes that the near-concurrent release of Apple's Leopard and Adobe's Creative Suite 3 will unleash a flood of pent up demand for Apple computers. Further, according to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Google and Apple have "are working on many more projects together." (side note: if Apple and Google are collaborating, they have a combined cash horde of $24 billion to influence the market. That's only half of Microsoft, but it's a force to think about). And finally, George Scriban, one of the Blackfriars blog readers notes that Apple will will likely exceed the 100 million iPod mark this month rather than next. That means that the iPod halo effect is a few million customers ahead of the schedule I cited in my article.
My overall point: the trick in being an analyst or a great marketer is seeing the obvious before anyone else does. That means sometimes taking chances on being later proven wrong. There's a ton of news saying that technology buying behaviors are changing, and many of those factors favor Apple. Those who see the change earlier than others have more opportunities to profit from the trend. Those that follow the herd will tend to get slaughtered. The big difference between the two strategies is whether people have the courage to believe their eyes.
UPDATE: Another data point this morning: Fortune Magazine just rated Apple the most innovative company, #2 in computers and #7 most admired company in the world.
UPDATE 2: Thank you to Paul Thurrott for his kind words today in response to this post, especially given our disagreements on what the data means. Gee, maybe this is the dawning of a new age.
Full disclosure: the author is long Apple shares at the time of writing.
Technorati Tags: Analysis, Apple, Department of Transportation, Gartner, Google, IDC, iPod, Marketing
posted by Carl Howe at
10:15 AM
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